Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi landed in Islamabad on Friday evening to open the long-delayed second round of talks with the US, and special envoy Steve Witkoff and senior adviser Jared Kushner are expected on Saturday morning. The optics suggest a breakthrough, but the substance is thinner than the headline suggests.
Both sides have left their negotiators at home, Tehran is routing its peace terms through Pakistani mediators rather than handing them over directly, and Araghchi’s continued stays in Muscat and Moscow revive an existing Russian offer to take custody of Iran’s 450-kilogram enriched uranium stockpile, an offer that President Donald Trump has already rejected once. The question before the weekend is not what these talks will achieve, but whether they are talks at all.
The choreography without the counterparts
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed the US trip on Fox News, describing them as direct talks brokered by Pakistan. What she didn’t mention is that Vice President JD Vance, who led the US delegation in the April 11-12 round, is staying home. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, seen by the White House as Vance’s counterpart, is also absent. Both sides deprived the meeting of its negotiators, which is not how governments behave when an agreement is imminent.
Tehran’s cautiously denialable pitch
The Iranian state news agency IRNA described the visit as purely bilateral. Araghchi repeated the wording on X with the line “Our neighbors are our priority.” Reuters reports that Tehran will hand over its peace terms to Pakistani mediators for forwarding to the US, maintaining the fiction that no direct meeting will take place. That’s a useful cover at home, where any public concession to Washington is political poison, especially for the Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) faction that backed Ghalibaf in April.
The Moscow map
The part of the trip that should draw attention in Washington is the Russia leg. Iran has around 450 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium that can be converted to weapons-grade within weeks. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has repeatedly confirmed that Russia’s offer of detention, first made by President Vladimir Putin in March and rejected by President Donald Trump, remains open. Rosatom CEO Alexey Likhachev said this month that Moscow was ready to help. A Russian transmission eliminates the casus belli without a U.S.-branded surrender.
Why Trump said no and why the problem hasn’t gone away
Trump rejected the March offer for leverage reasons. Handing custody of weapons-grade uranium to Moscow while Washington competes with Ukraine would be a strategic gift, and Trump has acknowledged that Russia is supporting Iran in the war. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said this week that Washington has a number of options, including a voluntary surrender by Iran, but Tehran’s State Department has already designated its uranium as sacred. Washington wants to secure supplies, just not in Russia.
What to see this weekend
Saturday’s meeting is unlikely to result in a public breakthrough. Pakistani mediators will seek to bridge the Strait of Hormuz blockade and sanctions relief, using Araghchi’s proposal as a starting point. If he flies to Moscow on Monday with an empty briefcase, the Russian policy will tighten and oil risk premiums will remain elevated. If he leaves Islamabad with a frame, the ceasefire will apply. What looks like a resumption of talks is, for now, a staged exchange without senior negotiators, and Iran’s withdrawal option is on the tarmac in Moscow.
