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A massive shortage of aviation fuel due to the Iran-US war has triggered a wave of flight cancellations across Europe and the Middle East. Industry giant Lufthansa alone canceled 20,000 flights in the summer season on Wednesday after reducing flight capacity on some routes for weeks.
The crisis, fueled by escalating tensions at the critical chokepoint – the Strait of Hormuz – and supply chain collapse, has left tens of thousands of travelers stranded. There are ongoing fears of a “jet fuel shock” that could halt international air travel for months.
To protect itself from rising oil prices, Lufthansa Group announced it would have to cancel flights over the next six months to save 40,000 tonnes of jet fuel. The airline canceled short-haul flights that it deemed “unprofitable.”
The Lufthansa Group operates the German airline Lufthansa and its subsidiaries and affiliated companies Swiss, Austrian, ITA, Brussels Airlines, Eurowings and Discover Airlines. The regional subsidiary Lufthansa CityLine was particularly affected by the decision, but the effects can be felt throughout the entire group.
The airline has already grounded 27 Lufthansa CityLine aircraft.
The Lufthansa Group’s chief financial officer, Till Streichert, said that the company “has long recognized the possible removal of CityLine from our program as part of our strategic development, regardless of the current geopolitical crisis.”
Lufthansa leads mass flight cancellations
This week the extent of the disruption became clear when Lufthansa canceled dozens of flights from its schedule, including from Frankfurt to Bydgoszcz and Rzeszów in Poland and to Stavanger in Norway.
Europe’s largest airline group sparked panic among passengers after it announced the immediate cancellation of up to 20,000 scheduled flights due to increases in oil prices.
Industry analysts warned that the airline is “running out of options” as strategic reserves dwindle. The German airline is not the only one struggling with the kerosene crisis. Other affected companies include easyJet and British Airways. Several Middle Eastern airlines have also started cutting their schedules to conserve remaining fuel supplies for key long-haul routes.
The Iran War and the Collapse of the Global Supply Chain
At the heart of the jet fuel crisis lies the worsening conflict in Iran, with no ceasefire in sight, which has effectively shut down key fuel transit corridors and halted refinery production in the Middle East.
With key shipping routes blocked, particularly the key maritime artery, the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway through which most of the world’s oil flows, is considered too risky for tankers. Meanwhile, the traditional “tap points” that supply European hubs have significantly tightened supply.
Last week, International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol warned that Europe only had about six weeks of fuel supplies left, which he feared could be “the biggest energy crisis we have ever experienced.”
Europe enters a six-week countdown as planes land amid looming supply shortages. If no alternative supply lines are built, the continent is at risk of a complete “drying up” of aviation kerosene, analysts warn.
Impact on travelers and ticket prices
For passengers, the crisis has created immediate chaos. In addition to Lufthansa’s 20,000 cancellations, at least ten major airlines have begun grounding parts of their fleets. Passengers have reported last-minute cancellations with less than 24 hours’ notice, sabotaging their travel plans.
As seat capacity shrinks due to grounded planes, many passengers are complaining that ticket prices for the remaining flights have increased by up to 40%. Some of the major airports such as Frankfurt, London Heathrow and Dubai are experiencing massive backlogs as staff struggle to rebook displaced travelers.
How the “Jet Fuel Shock” compares to previous crises
Economists have called the “jet fuel shock” due to the Iran-US war much more severe when comparing its impact on the aviation sector to the oil crisis of the 1970s. Unlike the COVID-19 pandemic, where demand disappeared, the current crisis is characterized by high demand but a physical shortage of fuel necessary to transport aircraft. As a result, some airlines were forced to ground their entire fleet.
As they desperately seek alternative fuel sources, including an accelerated transition to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), airlines are concerned that the amount of SAF available is not enough to make up for the massive deficit left by traditional jet fuel.
What’s next when clouds of uncertainty appear?
As the crisis deepens in the Middle East, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) has called on governments to release emergency fuel reserves to avoid a complete shutdown of the global economy.
“We are in uncharted territory,” a senior aviation consultant was quoted as saying. “If the taps are not opened soon, the 20,000 flights canceled by Lufthansa will be just the tip of the iceberg. We are facing a fundamental decline in global connectivity,” he added.
Currently, travelers have no choice but to check flight status regularly and avoid unnecessary travel through major hubs in Europe and the Middle East until the supply chain stabilizes.
